NCTV: chance of an attack still real
There is a real chance of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands. The National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) is therefore maintaining the threat level at 4 (substantial) on a scale of 1 to 5. This is due in part to the persistently high threat of jihadism. Young people who are sympathetic to right-wing terrorist and jihadist ideas also appear to be becoming radicalised online faster and more frequently. The speed at which this is happening is a cause for concern. The December 2024 edition of the Terrorist Threat Assessment for the Netherlands released today warns that several hundred young Dutch people are estimated to be active in right-wing extremist and jihadist online circles.
Threat from jihadism remains high
Jihadism continues to pose a major threat, as illustrated by the sharp increase in the number of jihadist attacks and jihadist-related arrests in Europe in 2024. The war in Gaza is a significant driving force behind this threat. Jihadist groups such as al Qai’da and ISIS are using the conflict in their propaganda to call on their supporters to carry out attacks in the West against ‘Christian and Jewish’ targets. On 19 September a man attacked people with a knife near the Erasmus Bridge in Rotterdam, killing one. The Public Prosecution Service suspects the attacker of murder and attempted murder with terrorist intent.
The jihadist threat stems mainly from Islamic State (ISIS). Networks of jihadists from Central Asia and the Caucasus are seeking to carry out attacks in Europe. These networks are often linked to ISKP, a branch of ISIS that has its origins in Afghanistan. In addition, attacks are still being carried out in Europe by lone-actor terrorists inspired by ISIS.
There is also a potential Europe-wide threat from individuals released from prison following a terrorism conviction. This will also play a greater role in the Netherlands from next year, with the scheduled release of several convicted terrorists from prison who have a higher threat profile than many of those previously released.
Several ‘sovereign citizens’ arrested for terrorist offences
For the first time, eight ‘sovereign citizens’ are being prosecuted for terrorist offences. They are suspected of participating in a terrorist organisation, and three of them are also suspected of planning a violent confrontation with local officials and intending to carry out citizen’s arrests. Several suspects were found to be in possession of weapons. Self-proclaimed sovereign citizens form a prominent subgroup within the anti-institutional movement. They declare themselves independent of the Dutch state and believe that laws and rules do not apply to them. Even after the arrests, the small group of sovereign citizens who are willing to use violence continues to pose a threat.
Growing number of young right-wing terrorists and jihadists becoming radicalised online
The rapid online radicalisation of young people is playing a significant role in the terrorist threat. There are likely several hundred young people in the Netherlands, some as young as 14, who are active in online right-wing terrorist or jihadist communities. The speed at which some children and young people are becoming radicalised online is concerning. There is a real risk that individuals from this online scene will follow through on their rhetoric and commit an act of violence. Dozens of young people in the Netherlands have come to the attention of the police and the Public Prosecution Service on account of activities such as spreading terrorist propaganda, with some also suspected of planning attacks. The young jihadists in particular come into contact online relatively easily with members of ISIS who then encourage them to travel to a jihadist conflict zone or carry out an attack. This growing online radicalisation heightens the risk of terrorist violence.
New right-wing extremist groups are more willing to take action
Over the past year, new groups of right-wing extremist boys and men – and some women – have been established in the Netherlands, with some members also adopting terrorist ideologies. They are also more willing to take action: they not only share ideas online but also want to meet each other in person and engage in activities together. Some of them are resorting to racially motivated violence. With its message of white supremacy and hatred of minorities, the right-wing extremist movement is undermining the democratic legal order.
Threat level
In December 2023, the threat level in the Netherlands was raised from 3 to 4 (on a scale of 1 to 5). Threat level 4 indicates that the possibility of an attack is substantial. There are no standard measures or national recommendations linked to the threat level. The detailed information in the DTN allows security partners, including the police, municipalities and ministries, to respond to the threat by taking appropriate measures. All security partners remain alert, and constant monitoring takes place to determine whether any additional measures are necessary, and if so, where and in what form. In recent months extra security measures have been taken where necessary. Information about such extra measures is not made public. Another purpose of the threat level is to raise awareness and inform the public about the threat that exists.