At present, there are no concrete indications pointing to a terrorist attack in the Netherlands, though it is conceivable. For this reason the threat level has been maintained at 3 (on a scale of 1 to 5). These are the key conclusions of the 56th edition of the Terrorist Threat Assessment for the Netherlands, published by the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV). Supporters of jihadism pose the greatest terrorist threat to the Netherlands, although Dutch jihadists have little if any public presence. Vigilance is also necessary with regard to right-wing extremism, as some young adherents may pose a threat. There are also indications of further radicalisation within the radical undercurrent of the movement opposing the government’s coronavirus measures. In this context the violent threat is posed primarily by individuals and small groups who are susceptible to subversive conspiracy theories they encounter, whether online or in the real world.
Right-wing extremism
As established in the previous threat assessment, accelerationism is the movement that poses the largest violent threat within the sphere of right-wing extremism. A few hundred Dutch accelerationists have come to the attention of the authorities online; some of them may pose a threat. In several of this movement’s online networks a fascination with weapons has been noted. There are concerns that individuals with this ideological background intend to join the armed forces or shooting clubs in order to gain experience with weapons. A new factor is that the war in Ukraine may exert an appeal on Dutch right-wing extremists, but as yet they have shown little interest in travelling to Ukraine and joining right-wing extremist groups on either the Ukrainian or the Russian side.
Anti-government extremism
In the Netherlands, discontent about the coronavirus measures mostly took the form of activities undertaken by a law-abiding upper layer and a radical undercurrent. Certain utterances by public figures may give individuals in this radical undercurrent a sense of being heard and legitimated in their radical behaviour. A small number of individuals contributing to the political discourse have employed a radicalised COVID-19 narrative involving various conspiracy theories. Virologists have indicated that there is still a risk of new coronavirus variants emerging, meaning there may be a resurgence of actions by the radical undercurrent if restrictive measures are reintroduced. Agitators and conspiracy theorists are also likely to shift their focus to other issues in society on which they oppose the government.