NCTV: Individualisation of terrorism makes threat more unpredictable
Increasingly, radicalisation is an individual process. Terrorist attacks are more often an individual affair as well. This makes it more difficult to predict who will commit an act of violence and when and why they might do so. These are some of the key conclusions of the latest edition of the Terrorist Threat Assessment for the Netherlands, the semi-annual report issued by the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV). There is a realistic chance of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands, and for that reason the threat level remains at 4 (substantial).
Deputy National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security Wieke Vink: ‘Since 2020, terrorist attacks in Europe have been carried out almost exclusively by lone actors. We are seeing perpetrators with new, idiosyncratic world views. These are often a mix of religious and political convictions, conspiracy theories and hatred, in combination with elements from the individual’s own personal circumstances. People can also be motivated to carry out an attack purely by a fascination with violence.’
Centrally run terrorist organisations still pose a major threat to security in Europe. At the same time, radicalisation is occurring more and more frequently on social media, gaming platforms and in chat groups that are not directly controlled by these organisations. Using fluid online networks, terrorist organisations (and their followers) disseminate propaganda, knowledge and ideas to encourage individuals to commit terrorist violence. The impact of an attack carried out by an individual acting on their own – for example, a knifing or a vehicular attack – is smaller, but the chance that such an attack will succeed is greater.
Jihadism
The threat of jihadist attacks in Europe, including the Netherlands, remains present. For now, the threat seems to be on the decline: thanks to ongoing counterterrorism operations worldwide, international terrorist organisations such as ISIS and Al Qa’ida currently appear less capable of carrying out attacks in Europe.
However, ISIS has the ability to swiftly reconstitute its attack capabilities as soon as this military pressure is lifted. In this context, it is important to note that ISIS has been gaining strength in Syria and elsewhere over the past few months. A number of individuals with a high threat profile who had been convicted in the Netherlands of offences relating to jihadist terrorism were released from prison in 2025. As far as the authorities are currently aware, these individuals have thus far not engaged in any actions that would suggest an intention to carry out a terrorist attack. Even so, it cannot be ruled out that these individuals might one day commit an act of jihadist-inspired violence. Additional releases scheduled for 2027 could heighten the terrorist threat.
Right-wing extremism
The threat posed by right-wing extremism is still present. There have been a number of arrests within right-wing extremist circles, but there are no indications that there is a greater willingness to commit violence. Most right-wing extremists believe that it is counterproductive to openly call for violence. Instead, there is a focus on normalising right-wing extremist ideas and activities, a strategy that is increasingly successful. This normalisation leads to fear, hate and racism in society and undermines social cohesion. In some cases it can even lead to acts of violence.
The complete Terrorist Threat Assessment for the Netherlands (December 2025) can be found on this website from February 2026.