NCTV: rising number of young people radicalised online
The rapid radicalisation of young people online is a threat to national security. This was a key conclusion of the six-monthly Terrorist Threat Assessment for the Netherlands (DTN), published by the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV). There is a real chance of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands, and the threat level therefore remains at 4 (‘substantial’).
According to National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security Pieter-Jaap Aalbersberg, ‘The speed with which teenagers and young people are being radicalised online, in both jihadist and right-wing terrorist circles, gives real cause for concern. Such individuals may eventually commit an act of terrorist violence. That means our approach to online radicalisation is crucial, as is online moderation of terrorist and extremist content by social media platforms.’
Online jihadist networks
Jihadism continues to pose the biggest terrorist threat to Europe. As in the second half of 2024, in the past few months there have been dozens of attacks and thwarted attack plots in Europe. Many of the perpetrators were acting alone, albeit inspired by the terrorist organisation Islamic State (ISIS). The attacks were often straightforward in nature, as in the case of knife attacks, or driving a vehicle into a crowd, causing many casualties in the process. The attacks were aimed mainly at Jewish or Israeli targets, or at individuals accused of acts of anti-Islamic desecration.
The threat posed by older, real-world networks is on the decline. However, there is now a new generation of jihadists who are members of online groups where they come into contact with like-minded individuals. These online networks largely consist of teenagers and young adults who create, edit and spread jihadist content. There is a risk that individuals or a group inspired by this online propaganda will commit an act of violence in the Netherlands. The number of minors arrested in the Netherlands in connection with terrorism has also risen in the past few years.
Right-wing terrorist threat
As with young jihadists, the NCTV has also observed rapid radicalisation of young people in right-wing terrorist online networks. These groups too are made up largely of young people who are seeking an identity and trying to bring meaning to their lives. Often they are also dealing with psychiatric or psychosocial problems.
In the online world these young people can easily find their way into right-wing extremist groups and chats. In this environment, where extremist language is encouraged and ‘liked’, such individuals can quickly become radicalised. These young people meet up in person sporadically, and they are often members of multiple chat groups, with new groups being created on a regular basis. This makes it difficult to determine the size of these networks. Through their use of social media and participation in online networks or groups, they are exposed to violent and terrorist content. There is a real chance of people within these groups quickly becoming radicalised and ultimately committing acts of terrorist violence.
Influence of Russian state threat on extremism and terrorism
The state threat posed by Russia has increased. The DTN’s special theme section discusses the effects of the Russian threat on extremism and terrorism in the Netherlands. Russian disinformation is resonating in the Netherlands with anti-institutional and right-wing extremists. Interactions between the Russian government or Russia-affiliated individuals and Western anti-institutional and right-wing extremists are an element of that threat, but are less common in the Netherlands than in other Western countries. For now, the impact of those interactions on the extremist and terrorist threat in the Netherlands is limited.
The full translation of the English report will be published shortly.