Evolving world order reaffirms importance of a resilient Netherlands
The balance of power in the world is changing, and as a result, the Netherlands is increasingly being confronted with uncertainty and unpredictability on the international stage. More and more, countries are prepared to use power to defend their own interests. In the present climate Europe needs to fend for itself more in terms of its resilience and security. These are some of the key conclusions of the 2025 Threat Assessment on State Actors (DBSA).
The heads of the General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) and the Defence Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) and the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) presented the joint DBSA 2025.
Pieter-Jaap Aalbersberg (NCTV): ‘This threat assessment confirms that we in the Netherlands should not stand still. The question is not whether we will experience societal disruption, but when. This is why it is important for us to continue working to safeguard our security and resilience.’
Threat remains as great as ever, and has even increased with regard to sabotage
The DBSA is appearing at a turbulent and uncertain time. Over the past two years the various threats to the Netherlands posed by state actors remained the same, with the threat of sabotage increasing. A growing number of countries seem to be seeking to influence Dutch society by means of both conventional and digital espionage, intimidation or the dissemination of disinformation. A direct military attack on NATO territory remains unlikely, however.
Vice Admiral Peter Reesink (Director, MIVD): ‘Our security is under unprecedented pressure. It is therefore all the more urgent for us to monitor these developments and offer a fitting response.’
Economy
The economy is closely bound up with geopolitics. Strategic dependencies are used as a form of political or economic pressure. In addition, various countries are attempting, either openly or covertly, to acquire European and Dutch knowledge and technology, in both the academic and private sectors. The use of economic instruments by state actors could have major consequences for the Netherlands. For example, in the short term, life could become more expensive for people.
Consequences for the Netherlands
The threats mentioned above can result in social upheaval, disruption to critical infrastructure, and possible economic damage.
Erik Akerboom (Director-General, AIVD): ‘Never before has the AIVD received so many questions from organisations about what they can do to better protect processes and people. They’re experiencing the effects of conflicts and unease within society. The Netherlands is a potential target country. This is why we are alert.’
Digital sabotage poses a significant threat to Dutch society. It could result in the temporary unavailability of electricity, the internet, payment systems or clean drinking water. The number of acts of sabotage in Europe is expected to increase.
The need for a resilient society
The threats posed by state actors remain undiminished, and they can fuel feelings of unease and insecurity in society. It is therefore all the more important for the Netherlands to become more resilient. As a country we need to be more robust. By making critical infrastructure resilient and by preparing society as a whole for possible disruptions or interference (whether open or covert), we in the Netherlands will stand stronger against the threat. Working to build a more resilient society is a task for us all: government, companies, civil society organisations and members of the public.