In the Winter of 2018 the NCTV published a research report titled:
'A perspective on the transformation of ISIS following the fall of the ‘caliphate’: Continuation of roles, transformation of threats'
This study is explorative by nature and aims at deepening the discussion about the implications of the fall of the ‘caliphate’. The report has been helpful in sharpening the reflections on the content of the threat assessments, for instance the Terrorist Threat Assessment Netherlands.
In cooperation with the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) and the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) as well as the University College London (UCL) the report was also the basis for an interdepartmental brainstorm at the level of senior civil servants. Our key national government partners provided significant insights to the discussion. The results of this discussion will be published shortly in a report drafted by these two well noted think tanks (ICCT and ICSR). The report will also be published on our website.
The investigation makes an inventory of possible development paths in which ISIS can develop after the fall of the ‘caliphate’. Following the fall of the 'caliphate', ISIS will carry out its existing roles in a different way – as a proto-state, Sunni insurgency, terrorist group, criminal organisation, and/or jihadist ideology – and consequently, the potential and actual threats posed by ISIS will change.
The analyses is based on research of scientific literature, as well as public and government reports and newspaper articles. Next to this, various Dutch and international NCTV-partners have commented draft versions of this report.