About Terrorist Threat Assessment Netherlands

The Netherlands makes use of a system of threat levels indicating the chance of a terrorist attack in or against the Netherlands. The NCTV publishes the Terrorist Threat Assessment Netherlands (DTN) four times a year. Various factors are taken into account in the threat level assessment. In balancing all these factors, a conclusion can be drawn: the current threat level.

The Terrorist Threat Assessment Netherlands (DTN) is a general assessment of radicalization, extremism and of the national and international terrorist threat to the Netherlands and Dutch interests abroad. The assessment is a trend report in which the main threat developments are outlined. The DTN is primarily drawn up for the benefit of the administrative and political leadership and policy makers.

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    In the Netherlands there is a chance of a terrorist attack. The Dutch government is monitoring this threat closely, in order to take timely measures to reduce or prevent the terrorist threat. The National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism, the NCTV, therefore drafts the National Terrorist Threat Assessment, the DTN, three to four times per year. This provides a general assessment of all the national and international terrorist threats against the Netherlands. To this end, the NCTV brings together information from the intelligence, security services, police, Dutch embassies, media and internet. Combining this information means that everyone becomes aware of the likelihood of an attack. There are five threat levels to indicate the likelihood of a terrorist attack: levels 1 to 5. Since 2013, the threat level has been raised to the fourth level which means that although there is a real possibility of an attack, there are no specific indications that terrorists are preparing for such an attack in the Netherlands. The DTN also indicates the source of the threat. Currently, it originates from jihadist terrorists. But what other kinds of terrorist groups are active in the Netherlands? And how do those groups operate? Besides the current threat, the DTN also looks ahead to the future. For example, it examines whether tensions elsewhere in the world could also generate security issues for the Netherlands. And how opposing political and social views create rifts between different groups in society. Would you like to find out more about the DTN? Visit nctv.nl.


The DTN is drawn up using the information of services services responsible for fighting terrorism and radicalisation. Information from publicly accessible sources, administrative sources and the NCTV’s own analyses is also used for this purpose.

Five threat levels

The threat level is the conclusion of the threat assessment. It captures in one word an estimate of the risk of an attack in or against the Netherlands. There are five levels of accumulating threat:

  • Level 1: Minimal: It is unlikely that a terrorist attack will occur in the Netherlands.
  • Level 2: Limited: There is a slight chance of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands.
  • Level 3: Significant: A terrorist attack in the Netherlands is conceivable.
  • Level 4: Substantial: There is a real chance of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands.
  • Level 5: Critical: A terrorist attack in the Netherlands is imminent.

Current threat level: substantial

The current threat level is substantial as of 22 March 2013.

DTN-numberDate of publicationLevel
DTN 1 to DTN 7May 2005
DTN 8 to DTN 11March 2007Limited
DTN 12 to DTN 18March 2008Substantial
DTN 19 to DTN 31November 2009Limited
DTN 32 to DTN 49March 2013 - presentSubstantial